Beijing Culture (000802): New frontline film and television leading company’s IP platform types continue to grow
Key points of investment: Box office champions such as “Wandering Earth” and “Wolf Warrior 2” verify the sustainability of explosive products and promote the company to become a new leader in film and television content.
The company has participated in box office champions / phenomenal films such as “War Wolf 2”, “Fanghua”, “I’m Not a Medicine God”, “Anonymous” and “Wandering Earth”, proving 西安耍耍网 the company’s sustainable explosive ability.
Since 2014-2018, the company has participated in the investment and distribution of nearly 25 films, among which 5 movie box offices ranked in the top 10 of domestic movie box offices of the year.
We expect the Chinese New Year box office champion “Wandering Earth” to have a final box office of about 4.7 billion, bringing 300 million to 3 to the company.
500 billion gross profit.
In addition to “Wandering Earth”, the company will have nearly 10 movies released in 2019 and 7-9 TV drama projects, and the performance is expected to exceed expectations.
Complementary team + decision-making mechanism of the investment committee + full-process control + three-dimensional publicity, which greatly improves the performance continuity of project content companies.
Traditional domestic film and television companies generally have advantages in one of the three major areas of film, television or variety. It is difficult to develop the three areas in a balanced and balanced manner. The core reason is that these companies generally only have some core founders / families and have the ability toShort board.
(1) Song Ge, Du Yang, Lou Xiaoxi, and Wang Jinghua, members of the core business team, have worked for many years in movies, full-screen dramas, variety shows, etc., with excellent content judgment, investment, and project control capabilities; (2) investmentCommittees make decisions about project investment through strict income measurement standards to avoid the influence of human choice on decision-making and benefit transmission behavior; (3) “I am not a medicine god”, “Wandering Earth” and subsequent “Tropical Past”,Projects such as “Special Police Team” all use the form of cooperative investment with shareholders’ affiliate funds to strengthen the binding of interests with other producers; (4) The entire process controls the main investment projects, highlights the ability to publicize, and effectively creates explosive works.Experience, instead of improving project success rate.
Invested 1.3 billion to build the “Feng Shen” trilogy. It is expected that the company will become a SIP-driven platform company in the entire industry chain in the future.
From 2016 to 2018, the domestic movie market entered a period of steady growth, with an annual box office compound intensity of 8%, but domestic movies achieved a 26% growth rate in 2018. The audience ‘s viewing taste and the Hollywood market opened a gap, which is good for Beijing culture, the leading domestic blockbuster.
In the Hollywood market, Marvel’s “Avengers”, “Iron Man”, “Thunder”, “Captain America”, “Guardians of the Galaxy” and other superhero series, and “Science Fiction” series such as “The Lord of the Rings” have achieved hugeBox office success.
Beijing Culture intends to invest no more than 1.3 billion to shoot the “Fengshen” trilogy, which will be released in the summer from 2020 to 2022 to drive explosive performance.
Through the “Seal God” SIP, the overall layout of theme parks, hotels, web dramas, variety shows and other entire industrial chains is established, and a three-dimensional development and three-dimensional marketing system based on the industrial chain is established, making the company a Hollywood IP with a large IP driving forcePlatform company.
The first coverage was given a “Buy” rating.
We predict that the company will realize operating income in 2019-2021.
9.9 billion / 20.
42 billion / 23.
3.4 billion, realizing net profit attributable to mothers4.
8.8 billion / 5.
6.9 billion / 6.
60 ppm, corresponding to a net profit growth of 50.
0% / 16.
6% / 15.
8%, corresponding EPS is 0.
92 yuan / share.
The company is given a 24x target PE in 2019, corresponding to a target city size of US $ 11.7 billion, reaching 28% of space, and given a “buy” rating.
Risk reminder: the risk that the box office of the main investment project will not meet the expectations; the risk that the TV drama project sales will not meet the expectations; the policy supervision risk of the film and television industry; the corporate governance risk.